CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 12E (Genevieve)…is located 70 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, MexicoNortheast Pacific
According to the NHC Advisory 19…Genevieve is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is expected to gradually move away from the Baja California peninsula. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Genevieve is forecast to become a tropical depression Friday night and a remnant low this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. An automated observing site near Puerto Cortes recently reported a wind gust of 42 mph (68 km/h).
Here’s what the computer models are showing
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula through today and may linger into tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area through the early afternoon, especially over higher terrain.
RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches across southern Baja California Sur, with isolated storm totals of 12 inches across far southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of the west-central coast of Mexico and are spreading northward along the coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
>>> An area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Central Pacific
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
>>> A broad area of low pressure located around 1000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, is producing very little shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development as this system moves slowly northeast during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s a satellite image of this area
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Western North Pacific
>>> There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 90W, which is located approximately 285 NM south-southeast of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, upper level analysis shows 90W to be in a favorable environment for development, with good equatorward outflow, moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Models are in strong agreement that the system will continue to track north-northwestward into a region of lower wind shear and gradually intensify.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the system to transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.
Satellite image of this area
