Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES

Tropical Cyclone 06W…located approximately 473 NM east of Kadena AB, Okinawa Tropical Cyclone 07W (Mekkhala)…located approximately 216 NM west-southwest of Taipei, Taiwan – Final Warning Tropical Cyclone 09E (Elida)…is located 420 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California  

Northeast Pacific

Hurricane 09E (Elida) is a category 1 hurricane…which will be on a weakening trend from here on out Here’s the computer models According to the NHC Advisory 13…Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue with some decrease in forward speed through Wednesday night. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to begin tonight as Elida moves over colder water, and the cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical storm Wednesday or Wednesday night and degenerate to a remnant low Thursday or Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).   >>> An elongated area of low pressure located about 1400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California continues to produce a broad of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The system is expected to move slowly westward to west-northwestward over the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent >>> A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system will likely become a tropical depression by late this week while it moves generally west-northwestward away from the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent >>> Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent >>> Yet another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin within the next couple of days. Some subsequent gradual development of this system is possible later this week while the system moves slowly westward toward the central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)