CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 26S (Seroja)…is located approximately 501 NM west-northwest of Darwin, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 27S…is located approximately 690 NM northwest of Learmonth, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 26S
Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 3)
Here’s what the
computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a ragged but consolidating system that is quasi-stationary in the Suva Sea just southwest of Timor.
TC 26S is in a favorable environment with good radial outflow and low to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear aloft, and warm sea surface temperature in the Suva Sea.
The favorable conditions are expected to persist along the forecast track and promote steady intensification to a peak of 100 knots by 96 hours. Afterward, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will weaken the system down to 85 knots by 120 hours.
Numerical models are in fairly tight agreement up to 48 hours. Afterward, significant spreading occurs to over 500 NM by 120 hours. This is likely due to the large variance among the models binary interaction with newly-formed TC 27S, currently in the Indian ocean south of Christmas Island, projected to approach TC 26S toward the latter hours. This lends overall low confidence in the JTWC track.
Tropical Cyclone 27S
Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 1)
Here’s what the
computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a disorganized system with two areas of deep flaring convection. The low level circulation is obscured by the smaller area with the bigger area to the east embedded in a large formative band, loosely wrapping toward the low level center. Another band, albeit much shallower and more fragmented, is feeding in from the south.
Analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, robust poleward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures. These are offset by cold dry air intrusion from the southwest.
After 24 hours, TC 27S will track more eastward. Then after 48 hours, the system will turn more poleward, as a near equatorial ridge to the southeast assumes steering. Concurrently, a binary interaction with TC 26S will commence.
The marginally favorable environment will fuel a slow intensification to a peak of 65 knots. Afterward, the cyclone will rapidly weaken to 50 knots by 120 hours, as outflow from TC 26S, being the larger and more dominant cyclone…will begin to suppress TC 27S.
Here’s a link to the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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