Typhoon 02W (Surigae)…is located 378 NM northeast of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 29S (Jobo) is located 513 NM north of Antananarivo, Madagascar
Typhoon 02W (Surigae)
Sustained 100 knot winds…with gusts to 125 knots (as of Warning Number 35) Here’s what the computer models are showing Looping, wide view satellite image…showing TY Surigae According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that Surigae continues to slowly weaken, with cloud tops continuing to warm and the western side of the convective mass showing signs of some mid-level westerly pressure. Additionally, though the large eye remains intact, the width of the convective band has become very thin on the western side, hinting at the presence of mid-level drier air and stronger westerly winds. The system is tracking slowly northward, while environmental conditions remain generally favorable, though becoming increasingly marginal. Shear remains low 8-10 knots, and the upper-level outflow remains strong, particularly poleward. As the system has slowed down as it approaches the ridge, it has moved over its own wake, resulting in relatively cooler sea surface temperatures. TY Surigae will round the ridge by 12 hours and begin accelerating towards the east-northeast along the northwestern periphery of the ridge to the southeast. By 48 hours, the ridge will weaken and reposition to the southeast, while a major shortwave trough dives southward out of the Sea of Japan, leading to a east-southeastward track through 72 hours. Continued slow weakening is expected over the next 12-24 hours, primarily in response to the persistent mid-level dry air and the impact of cooler sea surface temperatures. By 36 hours, a major shortwave trough currently over Eastern China will rapidly move over TY Surigae, and imparting rapidly increasing westerly shear (30-35 knots) and convergent flow aloft, generating a steady and rapid weakening trend through 72 hours. Surigae is forecast to steadily weaken through 120 hours as high shear and marginal sea surface temperatures offset the robust outflow into the mid-latitude westerlies. The track and intensity forecast remains highly dependent on the details of a trough and its interaction with Surigae, and thus both track and intensity forecasts beyond 72 hours are highly uncertain. Tropical Cyclone 29S (Jobo) Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 3) Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the JTWC, satellite imagery verifies the rapid consolidation and development of TC 29S, with a weak eye like feature becoming evident in the visible and infrared image. A microwave image exhibited deep convective banding wrapping around about 75 percent of the low level circulation, forming a clear 12 NM microwave eye Overall, TC Jobo lies in a favorable environment, with expanding cirrus outflow to the west indicative of an improved shear environment. Robust poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures round out the favorable conditions allowing for the recent period of rapid intensification. The system is forecast to continue tracking west to west-northwest through the forecast period, and is expected to make landfall along the central coast of Tanzania just after 96 hours. Shear is expected to remain low through 24 hours, allowing for further intensification to a peak of 75 knots. Thereafter, the passage of an upper-level trough to the south will induce increased shear, resulting in a fairly rapid weakening through 72 hours. As the trough moves off to the east and shear relaxes once again, a brief period of re-intensification is forecast prior to landfall…followed by dissipation once inland.   Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)   For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.