Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Apr 19, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Typhoon 02W (Surigae)…is located 305 NM east of Manila, Philippines
Typhoon 02W (Surigae)
Sustained 115 knot winds…with gusts to 140 knots (as of Warning Number 27)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a very intense and highly symmetrical system that has maintained a deep, albeit slightly warmed, central dense overcast with a large and well-defined 34 NM eye.
Analysis indicates the environment remains favorable with good radial outflow, low 5-10 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea.
TY 02W will slowly speed up out of the col and continue on its north-northwestward track as the ridge to the west quickly deflates and the ridge to the east builds, elongates meridionally, and becomes the primary steering mechanism.
After 48 hours, it will turn more north-northeastward and crest the ridge axis. Increasing wind shear and diminishing outflow aloft will gradually weaken the system down to 85 knots by 72 hours.
After 72 hours, TY Surigae will accelerate east-northeastward on the poleward side of the ridge. The addition of cooling sea surface temperatures will weaken the system faster and by 120 hours, will be reduced to 50 knots.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95S, which is located approximately 580 NM north-northwest of Mauritius.
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a disorganized low level circulation with some low level banding and flaring convection.
Analysis indicates a favorable environment for development characterized by low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, moderate outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in general agreement that invest 95S will track westward with some intensification near northern Madagascar in 1-2 days.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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