Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Apr 17, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Super Typhoon 02W (Surigae)…is located 399 NM east of Manila, Philippines
Super Typhoon 02W (Surigae)
Sustained 150 knot winds…with gusts to 180 knots (as of Warning Number 19)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a diminishing eye measuring approximately 10 NM, lending to high confidence on the initial position.
Analysis indicates a favorable environment with continued robust radial outflow, low 5-10 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea.
STY 02W is slowly tracking to the north-northwest as the subtropical ridge to the east-northeast builds. This ridge will remain the main steering ridge as the system tracks to the north-
STY Surigae will continue to slowly decrease in intensity as it progresses through the ridge and decreases sea surface temperatures, due to greater upwelling. As STY 02W approaches the ridge axis within the next 12 to 24 hours, the northward trajectory will slow as it enters a slightly weaker steering environment.
Over the next 36 to 48 hours the environment will become less favorable as the poleward outflow decreases slightly and shear increases to the north, decreasing the system intensity to 85 knots by 72 hours.
After 72 hours, STY Surigae will begin its recurve to the northeast. The environment becomes slightly less favorable as upper level divergence decreases, and wind shear continues to increase, leading to a natural weakening of the system to 65 knots by 120 hours.
Numerical models have clustered closer and remain in the Philippine Sea with no model member tracking toward Luzon.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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