Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea
Apr 13, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 02W (Surigae)…is located 65 NM south-southwest of Yap
Tropical Cyclone 02W (Surigae)
Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 3)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center, with the deepest
convective banding building to the west and north of the center.
Analysis indicates a favorable environment with poleward and equatorward outflow channels, low 10-20 knot wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea.
TS 02W will track slowly northward then northwestward over the
next 72 hours, as the subtropical ridge reorients. The favorable environment will maintain and promote steady intensification to 85 knots by 72 hours.
After 72 hours, TS 02W will continue northwestward toward the
break in the ridge, formed by a mid-latitude trough digging in from eastern Asia, that will break the ridge.
After the ridge breaks, TS 02W will track along the western periphery of the ridge feature positioned to its east, driving it further northwestward until reaching the ridge axis around 120 hours.
Continued intensification is expected as the favorable conditions are further enhanced by increased poleward outflow. By 120 hours, TC 02W is expected to reach 115 knots.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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