Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 17L (Paulette)…is located 385 miles southeast of Bermuda

Tropical Cyclone 18L (Rene)...is located is located 1175 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands

Tropical Cyclone 19L (Sally)…is located 70 miles southwest of Port Charlotte, Florida

Tropical Cyclone 20L…is located 1805 miles east of the Lesser Antilles

  Atlantic Ocean:     Tropical Cyclone 17L (Paulette) What the computer models are showing According to the NHC Advisory 25…Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwest or northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late Sunday and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND: WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late Sunday evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches likely. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.   Tropical Cyclone 18L (Rene) What the computer models show According to the NHC Advisory 24…The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected on Sunday, and a slow westward motion is forecast by Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday, the system is forecast to move west-southwestward. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Rene should slowly weaken over the next few days and is forecast to become a remnant low on Monday.   Tropical Cyclone 20L What the computer models show According to the NHC Advisory 2…The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is anticipated. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm in about 24 hours and it could become a hurricane in a few days. >>> Showers and thunderstorms located near and west of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions support some additional development, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic during the next two or three days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. By mid-week, upper-level winds should become less conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium 50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean Caribbean:  WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea Gulf of Mexico:  Tropical Cyclone 19L (Sally) According to the NHC Advisory 6…Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected through Monday. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north- northwest is forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane watch area late Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft will investigate Sally overnight. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, with some additional strengthening possible through early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly to the southeast of the center. A wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported in Key West, Florida. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND: WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night. Wind gusts to tropical- storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida peninsula today. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts over the Florida Keys through tonight with 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across southern Florida and the western Florida coast to the Tampa Bay metro area. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida. The depression is expected to produce through Tuesday rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Peninsula to southeast Louisiana Sunday and 2 to 4 inches farther inland over far southern Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. This is expected to be a slow-moving system that will likely continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers is likely. SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.   >>> A surface trough over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is producing limited shower activity. While some slow development of this system is possible, strong upper-level winds related to Tropical Storm Sally will probably limit the chances of tropical cyclone formation. The disturbance is forecast to move westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico