Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico
Oct 6, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 26L (Delta)…is located 135 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico
Here’s a satellite image
of the Atlantic Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 26L (Delta)
Here’s what the computer models
According to the NHC Advisory 10
…Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Little change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). NOAA buoy 42056 recently measured a sustained wind of 65 mph (104 km/h) and a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the the Cayman Islands today. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area and possible in the watch area near the same time.
RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding.
Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides.
Later this week, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall and flash and urban flooding to portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States.
SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
WSI satellite image
of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico:
Latest satellite image
of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico