Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico
Oct 27, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 28L (Zeta)…is located 390 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River
Here’s a satellite image
of the Atlantic Ocean
Gulf of Mexico:
ZETA FORECAST TO BE A FAST-MOVING HURRICANE THAT BRINGS A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS, STARTING IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY
Here’s what the computer models
According the NHC Advisory 14
…Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico overnight. Zeta is forecast to make landfall in southeastern Louisiana Wednesday afternoon, move close to the Mississippi coast Wednesday evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane again overnight and reach the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday as a hurricane on Wednesday afternoon before weakening over the southeastern United States on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL…5-8 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne…4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…3-5 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion Bay…2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay…2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Water levels along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will gradually subside today as Zeta moves away from the area.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning area in Mexico for the next few hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late Wednesday.
Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night.
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through today across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman Islands.
An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across western Cuba through Tuesday. An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast tonight, with the core of heavy rains spreading north into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday, near and in advance of Zeta. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.
WSI satellite image
of the Caribbean Sea
Latest satellite image
of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico