Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 15L…is located 140 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina

Atlantic Ocean:   Tropical Cyclone 15L Here’s what the computer models are showing According to the NHC Advisory 2…The depression is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to the east-northeast is expected to occur on Tuesday, and this general motion should continue for a few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is not forecast to strengthen much, but it could become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Little, if any, additional strengthening is forecast thereafter, and a weakening trend is expected to begin on Wednesday night. >>> A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a day or so. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean Gulf of Mexico:  Caribbean:    A seemingly well-organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is moving quickly westward across the central Caribbean Sea, but satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago again showed that the system has not developed a closed surface wind circulation. The wave is, however, producing an area of winds near tropical storm force south of the coast of Haiti, which will move near or south of Jamaica later this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before the system reaches Central America Wednesday night. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible on Jamaica today, and interests there, as well as in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula, should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Here’s what the computer models are showing * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico