Tropical Cyclone 09L (Isaias)…is located about 50 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida
Atlantic Ocean:Tropical Storm Isaias will remain near the east coast of Florida through tonight. Bands of rain, tropical storm force winds and storm surge flooding are likely impacts. The storm will then head for the Carolinas later Monday and Monday night as a tropical storm.This storm will quickly through the Northeast Tuesday…into early Wednesday.
According to the NHC Advisory 24, Isaias is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north and north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will pass just to the east of the Florida east coast through tonight. The center of Isaias will then move offshore of the coast of Georgia and southern South Carolina on Monday, move inland over eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina Monday night and move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next 36 hours, but Isaias is expected to be a strong tropical storm when it reaches the coast of eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina Monday night.
Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region late Monday and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A 51 mph (82 km/h) wind gust was recently measured at NOAA buoy 41009, just off the coast of Cape Canaveral. NOAA buoy 41010, located about 130 miles (210 km) east-northeast of Cape Canaveral reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) with a wind gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) within the past couple of hours.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC…2-4 ft Jupiter Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas for the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight. These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina within the warning area on Monday and Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in North Carolina on Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations:
Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.
Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.
Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.
Carolinas and the mid Atlantic: 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7 inches.
Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.
Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the coastal Carolinas and Virginia, is expected through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.
SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
TORNADOES: The potential for a couple tornadoes will begin along coastal South Carolina during the late afternoon and evening on Monday, spreading across eastern North Carolina on Monday night.
1.) A trough of low pressure is located about 300 miles north-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the trough has decreased during the past few hours and the system does not appear to be very well organized at the surface at this time. However, environmental conditions are expected to allow some slow development of the system to occur during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week. This system is forecast to move northwestward over the western Atlantic on Monday and Tuesday before it stalls southwest or west-southwest of Bermuda by the end of the week.
Here’s what the computer models are showing
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico
Gulf of Mexico:
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico