Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 11L (Josephine)…is located 865 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands

Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Josephine has formed in the Atlantic. This new tropical storm will move by north of the Leeward Islands this weekend. This storm will experiencing increasing wind shear this weekend, resulting in gradual weakening. Josephine is the earliest forming J named storm on record in the Atlantic basin. The previous record was held by Jose in 2005, which formed more than a week later in the calendar on August 22nd, According to the NHC Advisory 9…Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. On the forecast track the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected through Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.   1.) A broad area of low pressure over eastern North Carolina is forecast to move east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well to the southeast of New England and to the south of the Canadian Maritime provinces over the next several days. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next few days while it moves over warm sea surface temperatures of the Gulf Stream. What the GEFS model shows * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean Caribbean Sea: WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico Gulf of Mexico:  Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico