Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 09L (Isaias)…is located about 70 miles east-southeast of Fort Lauderdale, Florida

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone 10L…is located about 250 miles north-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands – Last Advisory

Atlantic Ocean: Here’s the looping radar image from the Bahamas According to the NHC Advisory 20A, a general northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a north-northwestward motion by tonight. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will approach the southeast coast of Florida this morning and move near or along the east coast of Florida later today and tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern mid-Atlantic states. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is possible today. Slow weakening is expected to begin tonight and continue through Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A Coastal Marine observing site at Settlement Point on the western end of Grand Bahama Island recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 48 mph (78 km/h). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide… Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL…2-4 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL…1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Northwestern Bahamas. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas through Sunday morning. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida Sunday morning and will spread northward through Sunday night. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in South Florida Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches. Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7 inches. Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor river flooding and isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and mid Atlantic. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast through Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.   Tropical Cyclone 10L According to the NHC Advisory 6, the system no longer has a well-defined center and has dissipated. The remnant trough should move generally west-northwestward for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. The winds associated with the remnants of the depression should continue to decrease through Sunday.   1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have slowly become better organized throughout the day. Although the disturbance does not appear to be very well defined at the surface at this time, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some additional development for the next few days, and a tropical depression could form early next week. This system is forecast to turn northwestward and then northward over the western Atlantic, passing north of the Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean Caribbean Sea: WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico Gulf of Mexico:  Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico