Tropical Cyclone 26W (Nalgae) / Invest 93S
Wednesday, November 2, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 26W (Nalgae)…is located approximately 73 NM west of Hong Kong – Final Warning


Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the NHC

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC


Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

Northwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 26W (Nalgae) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 29, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to near 45 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows a rapidly weakening system with the shallow and irregular central convection sheared northeastward, partly exposing a ragged low-level circulation that is tracking deeper into the cold northeasterly wind surge that is funneling in from the Taiwan Strait into the South China Sea.

The surge is evidenced by low level stratocumulus lines streaming southwestward in contra-flow with the upper-level cirrus streaks caught in the southwesterly jet stream that are providing strong poleward outflow to the weakening convection.

Tropical storm Nalgae will turn more northwestward then southwestward as an extension of a secondary ridge to the west-northwest assumes steering.

The unfavorable environment, mainly due to the cold surge, cooling sea surface temperatures, and increasing vertical wind shear, will continue to rapidly weaken the system to dissipation by 36 hours, possibly sooner.


>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 93S which is located approximately 252 NM north-northwest of the Cocos Islands, Australia

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a broad disorganized circulation with flaring convection primarily on the southern side.

Overall, the environment is not too shabby for 93S to develop with fair poleward outflow, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear that has been on a steady decline, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in relatively good agreement that 93S will continue to drift south-southeastward before looping back on itself and slowly but steadily intensifying to a low end TS strength cyclone beyond 72 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.