By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no active Tropical Cyclones at the time of this writing
Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, North and South Indian Oceans, and Arabian Sea:
North Indian Ocean
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 96B, which is located approximately 155 NM west-northwest of Nicobar Islands
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts persistent flaring convection in the northern semicircle of a gradually consolidating low level circulation (llc). A partial pass also reveals a llc beginning to form west-northwest of the nicobar islands.
Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development with moderate (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and moderate poleward and fair equatorward outflow.
Global models are in good agreement for steady development as 96B tracks west-northwestward over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development remainsmedium.