By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no active Tropical Cyclones at the time of this writing
Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, North and South Indian Oceans, and Arabian Sea:
North Indian Ocean
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 96B, which is located approximately 608 NM east-southeast of Chennai, India.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict a consolidating low level circulation center (llcc) which is being partially obscured by flaring convective activity, which beginning to exhibit formative wrapping. A scatterometer pass revealed a well-defined circulation center with 25-30 knot winds surrounding the llcc,
Environmental analysis reveals favorable conditions for further development with good poleward and westward divergent outflow aloft, warm sea surface temperatures, and low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear on the eastern side of the system.
Global models are in good agreement that 96B will continue on a north-northwestward track towards the southeastern coast of India while gradually intensifying up to tropical storm strength within the next 24-36 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27 to 33 knots.
The potential for the development is upgraded to high.
South Indian Ocean
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 96S
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict flaring convection completely obscuring the low level circulation center (llcc). A scatterometer bullseye revealed a windfield of 25-30 knot winds on the eastern and southeastern periphery of the presumed llcc.
Environmental analysis reveals moderate conditions for further development with weak radial outflow aloft aided by a small point source above it and an upper level low to the south, warm sea surface temperatures, and low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear.
Global models are in good agreement that 96S will continue on a westward track and slowly be engulfed by intense dry air entrainment.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 27 knots.
The potential for the development remains low.