Invest 98S / Invest 97A
Tuesday, December 13, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

 

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, North and South Indian Oceans, and Arabian Sea:

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 98S…which is located approximately 123 NM north-northwest of Cocos Islands, Australia

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a fully exposed low level circulation center with persistent deep convection sheared to the southwest.

Analysis indicates 98S is in a marginally favorable environment for development with moderate to strong (20-30 knot) easterly vertical wind shear offset by strong divergence aloft and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 98S will continue to track westward and slowly consolidate.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

The potential for the development is low.

Arabian Sea

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 97A…which is located approximately 363 NM south-south west of Mumbai, India

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a weak low level circulation (llc) with fragmented convective bands loosely wrapping into the llc.

Analysis indicates a marginal environment with moderate to strong (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear offset by moderate divergence aloft and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 97A will continue to track westward, slightly intensify, then slowly dissipate as vertical wind shear significantly increases.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development is high.