By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 04E (Bonnie)…located about 825 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 04E (Bonnie)
BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY
Advisory number 44
BONNIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE
Bonnie is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a quick westward motion is expected to continue through Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday. The post-tropical low should then dissipate by Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.
>>> Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico are gradually becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the central or western part of the eastern North Pacific basin during the weekend or early next week while moving generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
>>> South of Central Mexico:
A low pressure area is expected to form by early next week south of the coast of Central America.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system next week while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Central East Pacific:
There are no active tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather being investigated in the north central Pacific by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days in the central Pacific Ocean.
>>> Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea
Remnants of Tropical Cyclone 05W (Aere)…are located approximately 249 NM east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan
The system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts deep convection sheared to the west of an exposed and elongated low level circulation center.
Environmental analysis indicates a marginal environment with cool sea surface temperatures, offset by low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear and good poleward and equatorward outflow aloft, which is conducive for tropical transition.
Global models are in tight agreement that remnants 05W will have an asymmetric wind field as it tracks northwestward towards southern Hokkaido, Japan.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 30 to 35 knots.
The potential for the system to transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.