By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Subtropical Cyclone Nicole…is located about 415 miles east-northeast of the Northwestern Bahamas
STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
According to the NHC Advisory number 4
The storm is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight.
A turn toward the west or west-southwest is forecast to begin on Tuesday, and that motion should continue through early Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern
Bahamas on Tuesday and Tuesday night, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Nicole is forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity by Wednesday or Wednesday night while it is moving near or over the northwestern Bahamas.
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwest Bahamas within the hurricane warning area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected elsewhere in the northwest Bahamas by Tuesday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida by Wednesday night with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
*North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge…3 to 5 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to East Palatka…2 to 4 ft
*Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach…2 to 4 ft
*North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay…1 to 2 ft
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday:
Across the northwest Bahamas, and the central and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima of 6 inches.
Across coastal areas of southeast Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with local
maxima of 5 inches.
Heavy rainfall from this system will spread north across the
Southeastern United States late this week.
SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwest Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern United States coast during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
>>> Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located about 700 miles east of Bermuda is producing winds near gale force, and a small area of showers and thunderstorms far removed to the east of the low’s surface center.
The system is accelerating northeastward toward cooler waters, while remaining in a region of strong upper-level winds. Consequently, the chance for significant development is quickly diminishing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent