By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited in association with an area of low pressure located about 150 miles north of Bermuda. The low is accelerating northward towards cooler waters and into an area of strong upper-level winds, and development is
looking increasingly unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours is…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days is…low…10 percent
A trough of low pressure stretching from the central Caribbean northward to the southwestern Atlantic is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual subtropical development of this system over the next few days while it drifts north-northeastward.
The system is then forecast to meander over the subtropical western
Atlantic to the west or southwest of Bermuda. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
An area of low pressure could form over the eastern Caribbean Sea by early this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development as the low drifts westward or west-northwestward over the eastern Caribbean this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent