By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone Karl…is located about 135 miles northwest of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone Karl
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INVESTIGATING KARL…HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
NHC advisory number 14A
Karl is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A south-southwestward or southwestward motion is expected during the next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of southern Mexico on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is expected to become a tropical depression tonight or early Saturday and dissipate by early Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area this evening.
SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, but that activity is not showing any signs of organization.
Upper-level winds are expected to increase over the system during the weekend, therefore significant development is not anticipated while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent