By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 13L (Julia)…is located 55 miles south of Isla De Providencia, Colombia
Tropical Cyclone 13L (Julia)
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF NICARAGUA OVERNIGHT…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
NHC Advisory number 10
Julia is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A continued westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to reach the coast of Nicaragua overnight, move across Nicaragua on Sunday, and then move near or along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala through Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast this evening and tonight, and Julia could become a hurricane while passing near San Andres and Providencia Islands this evening. Julia is also expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of Nicaragua overnight.
Weakening is expected once Julia moves inland, but it is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it moves off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua late Sunday. Julia should weaken to a tropical depression on Monday and dissipate by Monday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina, and hurricane conditions are expected this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area overnight and early Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area early Sunday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Tuesday:
San Andres and Providencia…6 to 12 inches.
Nicaragua…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Remainder of Central America…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.
A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.
SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central
America this evening into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.