By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 13L (Julia)…is located 95 miles southeast of San Salvador, El Salvador
Tropical Cyclone 13L (Julia)
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM JULIA SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA…RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY
NHC Advisory number 15
Julia is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected overnight and on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Julia will move close to and parallel to the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala overnight and on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, but Julia is expected to remain a tropical storm near the Pacific coast of Central America through early Monday. Julia is expected to dissipate by Monday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue near Julia’s center and along the coast of Nicaragua within the warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area this morning.
Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area through this morning.
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning area beginning this afternoon into tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala within the watch area on Monday.
RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Tuesday:
Nicaragua and El Salvador…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres, Providencia, and Panama…an additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 12 inch storm total amounts.
Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely still occurring along the coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds, but water levels should subside today. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.
SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.