By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank) is located about 505 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico
FRANK REMAINS DISORGANIZED FOR NOW
Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank)
Frank is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
>>> South of the Baja California peninsula:
Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to show signs of organization.
Additional development of this system is possible during the next day or so while it remains nearly stationary or drifts westward, and a tropical depression could form during this time.
After that, interaction with Tropical Storm Frank to the east of this system is expected to prevent further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather being investigated by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at the time of this writing
Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:
There are no tropical cyclones
An area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 93W is located approximately 206 NM northwest of Guam
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a disorganized but deepening and expanding system with formative and fragmented banding from the north feeding into an obscured low level circulation.
Analysis indicates an overall favorable environment with subsidence to the northeast caused by a a westward transiting tropical upper tropospheric trough (tutt) cell. The same tutt cell is enhancing poleward outflow that is offsetting the subsidence.
Additionally, vertical wind shear is low (10-15 knots), and sea surface temperatures are very warm.
Numerical models are in general agreement that 93W will track northwestward and deepen over the next 24-48 hours as the subsidence will diminish with the tutt cell receding westward.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.
>>> An area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 95S is located approximately 524 NM west-northwest of Cocos Islands, Australia
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery show a broad system with scattered convection in the western periphery. There is weak formative banding within the north-northwestern quadrant wrapping into an assessed low level circulation.
Environmental analysis indicates a marginal environment for development supported by strong poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures offset by strong (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear.
Ensemble and deterministic models are in general agreement that the system will track south-southwestward and deepen over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to low.