By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ian)…is located about 70 miles south of Orlando, Florida
Tropical Cyclone 11L…is located about 770 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ian)
IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND FLOODING…EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC TOMORROW
NHC Advisory number 26
Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the northeast and north is expected during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move across central Florida overnight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected for the next day or so, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor…12-16 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood… 6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee…7-11 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay…4-6
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable…4-7 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River…3-5 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the Dry Tortugas…3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River including St. Johns
* St. Johns River south of Julington…2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River…2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge…2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key…2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line…1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the Florida Keys, and will continue overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area on the east coast of Florida beginning early Wednesday, and should spread up to Georgia and South Carolina on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba for the next few hours.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall:
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches.
Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this week through the weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
later this week through the weekend.
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight across central and south Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 11L
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR LONG
NHC Advisory number 3
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a general northwest to north-northwest motion is expected until the depression dissipates in a few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two.