By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 13L (Julia)…is located 160 miles northwest of Barranquilla, Colombia
Tropical Cyclone 13L (Julia)
JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
NHC Advisory number 6
Julia is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general motion should continue through Saturday night, with a westward motion at at a slower forward speed expected Sunday and Sunday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning. Julia or its remnants will then turn west-northwestward over Central America by Monday.
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
Steady to possibly rapid strengthening is forecast while Julia moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and the system is expected to become a hurricane by the time it passes near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands and reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Quick weakening is anticipated after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to become a remnant low or dissipate by Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Saturday night into early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Colombia within the warning area this morning. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible across portions of the northwestern coast of Venezuela during the next several hours.
RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through early Monday:
Northern Venezuela, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao…additional 1 to 3 inches
Guajira Peninsula…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia…6 to 12 inches
Portions of Central America…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. There is also the potential for life-threatening mudslides across portions of Central America this weekend.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.
SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting the ABC Islands and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia. These swells are forecast to spread westward and reach Jamaica late tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America on Saturday night and Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.