By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Fiona)…is located about 760 miles southwest of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Gaston)…is located about 920 miles west of the Azores
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Fiona)
FIONA STILL PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
Fiona is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue into tonight, followed by a turn toward the north on Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will gradually move away from the Turks and Caicos tonight and Wednesday, and approach Bermuda late on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Fiona is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of Turks and Caicos and these conditions should continue for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southeastern Bahamas for the next several hours.
RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:
British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Up to an additional local 1 to 2 inches.
Puerto Rico: Up to an additional local 1 to 2 inches. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of 35 inches.
Dominican Republic: Up to an additional local 1 to 2 inches. Storm Total up to 20 inches in the eastern section.
Turks and Caicos: Additional 2 to 4 inches with storm totals of 5 to 10 inches.
Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 4 inches.
Bermuda: 1 to 3 inches.
Heavy rains around the center of Fiona will impact the Turks and Caicos through this evening with continued life-threatening flooding. Localized additional flash and urban flooding is possible in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos through this evening.
Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds through this evening.
SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will continue to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United States through midweek. Swells from Fiona are expected to reach Bermuda later this week. The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Gaston)
GASTON STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC
Gaston is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected today, followed by a motion toward the east starting Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Slight additional strengthening is forecast today,
followed by little change in strength over the next couple days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect the Azores later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. The system continues to show signs of organization and it will likely become a tropical depression within the next two or three days.
The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward Islands late Wednesday and then move toward the central Caribbean Sea late this week. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty winds could affect these islands beginning on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Thursday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for at least gradual development of the system for a couple days thereafter while the system moves slowly northward between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent