By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 05L (Danielle) is located about 865 miles west-northwest of the Azores
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Earl) is located about 310 miles north of St. Thomas
Tropical Cyclone 05L (Danielle)
DANIELLE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE
Danielle is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue through this afternoon. A turn toward the east-northeast is anticipated on Wednesday followed by a slow cyclonic turn at the end of the week.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).
Tropical Cyclone Earl
EARL APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH
Earl is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a generally northward motion is expected to continue for the next day or two, followed by a turn to the north-northeast with some increase in forward speed.
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and Earl is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches, across the Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Monday.
Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are also possible, especially across the central interior region of Puerto Rico. Locally considerable flood impacts are possible in areas that will receive heavier rainfall totals.
>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
An area of low pressure is forecast to form with this system in the next day or so, and environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional development.
A tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week as the system moves generally west-northwestward or northwestward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent