By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Potential Tropical Cyclone 02L…located about 20 miles south-southwest of the northern tip of Guajira Peninsula, Columbia
CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA
Advisory number 10A
The system is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a fast westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. On the forecast track, the system will pass across the southern Caribbean Sea and near the northern coast of Venezuela during the next few hours, near the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia early Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea later on Thursday into Friday. The system is expected to be near or over Nicaragua by late Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the disturbance remains over water.
Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while moving westward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
Hazards affecting Land
RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela today and from the ABC Islands to portions of northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia today through Thursday morning.
The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:
Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 2 inches.
St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 2 to 4 inches.
Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela:4 to 6 inches.
Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and northeastern Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.
WIND:Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areaover Islas Margarita and the adjacent islands through this morning, and over the ABC Islands by this evening.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in Nicaragua late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday afternoon or evening.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
>>> Western Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the western tropical Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Slow development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward for the next few days.
The wave is forecast to move over the Windward Islands late Friday or early Saturday and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
>>> Western Gulf of Mexico:
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low pressure are over the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and found a closed wind circulation.
However, at this time the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is too poorly organized to designate the system as a tropical depression.
This system is forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development is still possible and it could become a short-lived tropical
depression near the coast before it turns northwestward and moves
inland over Texas later on Thursday.
Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent