By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical cyclone 23P (Fili) is located approximately 173 NM south-southwest of Noumea, New Caledonia
According to the JTWC Warning number 15, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to near 55 knots.
Satellite imagery depicts an exposed, well-defined low-level circulation center with deep convection sheared to the east.
Upper-level analysis indicates an unfavorable environment with high vertical wind shear and moderate eastward outflow.
TC 23P is tracking along the southwestern periphery of the ridge and is interacting with the subtropical westerlies, resulting in limited outflow and high vertical wind shear, which will serve to gradually weaken the system as it tracks southeastward to east-southeastward over the next 24 hours.
The system is expected to transition to a subtropical cyclone by 24 hours under strengthening westerlies and increasing (40 knot) vertical wind shear with significant dry air entrainment and upper-level convergent flow.
The system should maintain gale-force winds over the southern semicircle. After 24 hours, the system will likely slow and become quasi-stationary for 1 to 2 days as a strong high builds to the south.