By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94P…which is located approximately 55 NM northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows formative banding wrapping into a defined low level circulation (llc). in addition, deep convection exists within the central and northern peripheries of the llc.
Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation to include robust poleward outflow, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in agreement that the system will continue to track south-southeast and intensify over the next 24-48hrs.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.