By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96P…which is located approximately 482 NM southeast of Tonga
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows flaring convection displaced to the eastern periphery of an exposed low level circulation center.
Environmental analysis continues to indicate favorable conditions for development with good poleward outflow, low to moderate(15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
While global models remain in agreement that invest 96P will consolidate, continue to track southeastward, and gradually intensify over the next 48-72 hours, they also indicate that the system will become increasingly subtropical in nature.
There remains a brief window of opportunity for the system to reach warning threshold as a tropical system before becoming fully subtropical.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 30 to 35 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.