By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91P…which is located approximately 314 NM southwest of Bora-bora
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts flaring convection in the eastern periphery of a broad low level circulation.
Environmental analysis depicts a favorable environment for development, defined by poleward outflow aloft, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in general agreement that 91P will continue to track westward over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to Medium.