By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical cyclone 22S (Halima), is located approximately 1040 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia
According to the JTWC Warning number 12 sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to near 55 knots.
Satellite imagery shows an elongated system with its deep convection and rain bands being
sheared southeastward, partially exposing the low level circulation (llc).
Analysis indicates a marginal environment with warm sea surface temperatures and strong poleward offset by moderate to strong vertical wind shear and cold dry air intrusion in the low levels. The cyclone is tracking along the southern periphery of the ridge to the north.
TC Halima will track eastward then northward as the ridge recedes westward then extends southward. The environment is expected to become unfavorable as strong vertical wind shear and cold dry air intrusion persist, gradually eroding the system toward dissipation by 36 hours.