By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 25S (Karim), is located approximately 363 NM west of the Cocos Islands
According to the JTWC Warning number 4, sustained winds were 60 knots with gusts to near 75 knots.
Satellite imagery depicts a consolidating system with an irregular central dense overcast (cdo) obscuring the low-level circulation center (llcc).
Environmental conditions have improved with low vertical wind shear and moderate poleward outflow.
TC 25S will track slowly poleward along the western periphery of the ridge through 48 hours with gradual intensification to a peak of 65 knots by 24 hours.
After 24 hours, vertical wind shear will gradually increase leading to a steady weakening trend. After 48 hours, the system will track south-southeastward as it tracks within the enhanced flow between a broad mid-latitude trough and a subtropical ridge to the east.
Rapid weakening will occur as the system encounters increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment.
Near 96 hours, the system will weaken and stall as it encounters a strong high building to the south effectively blocking further poleward motion.
TC 25s should dissipate by 96 hours with the remnants tracking back toward the equator under the low-level southeasterly flow associated with the aforementioned high.