By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Batsirai)…is located approximately 87 NM north-northeast of St. Denis…in the South Indian Ocean
According to the JTWC warning number 15…wind speeds are 115 knots with gusts to 130 knots.
Animated radar imagery from Port Louis indicates an eyewall replacement cycle is underway. Radar imagery currently shows that the small inner eyewall is eroding as the outer eyewall strengthens. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery indicates warming cloud tops and weakening spiral banding.
TC 08S will track generally west-southwestward to westward through 72 hours under the steering influence of the ridge to the south.
Over the next 24 hours, TC 08S is forecast to continue weakening to about 110 knots. After 24 hours, the system should strengthen and re-intensify to about 115 knots at 36 hours. There is significant uncertainty during this phase of the intensity forecast.
After 36 hours, the system will weaken steadily as it approaches Madagascar with rapid weakening as the system tracks over the mountainous terrain of Madagascar. After 72 hours, the ridge will shift eastward and realign with the approach of a midlatitude major shortwave trough.
This will produce a west-southwestward turn toward a break in the ridge. The system is expected to re-intensify over the Mozambique Channel after the forecast period.