By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Batsirai)…is located approximately 286 NM south-southeast of Europa Island
According to the JTWC warning number 25…wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 65 knots.
Satellite images depicts an exposed, malformed and broad low-level circulation center with deep convection sheared to the southeast by moderate (20 knots) northwesterly vertical wind shear.
TC 08S is struggling to re-intensify due to the broad nature of the low level circulation, and significant dry air entrainment. Additionally, vertical wind shear is hindering convective development over the core, despite robust poleward outflow evident in animated water vapor imagery.
TC 08S is forecast to accelerate southward along the western periphery of the low- to mid-level ridge through 36 hours. Slight intensification to 45 knots is expected between 12 and 24 hours, then weakening as wind shear increases and sea surface
After 36 hours, the system will begin interacting with the leading edge of an approaching mid-latitude trough and commence subtropical transition. As TC Batsirai turns south-southeastward after 36 hours, it should complete subtropical transition near the subtropical jet and track over cooler sea surface temperatures with wind shear increasing to 30-35 knots.