South Indian Ocean – Invest 99S
Thursday, February 24, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 99S…which is located approximately 400 NM west of Darwin, Australia, Australia

According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows disorganized and deep convection flaring over a poorly defined low level circulation.

Environmental analysis reveals that the invest is in a marginal environment for development defined by pronounced equatorward outflow, warm sea surface temperatures, and low (05-10 knot) vertical wind shear with a tight gradient increasing rapidly to the north of the circulation center

Global models are in agreement regarding the intensification and generally quasi-stationary movement of 99S over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.