By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 99S…which is located approximately 400 NM west of Darwin, Australia, Australia
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows disorganized and deep convection flaring over a poorly defined low level circulation.
Environmental analysis reveals that the invest is in a marginal environment for development defined by pronounced equatorward outflow, warm sea surface temperatures, and low (05-10 knot) vertical wind shear with a tight gradient increasing rapidly to the north of the circulation center
Global models are in agreement regarding the intensification and generally quasi-stationary movement of 99S over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.