By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 98S…which is located approximately 268 NM east-southeast of Cocos Island, Australia
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts deep convection overhead a partially exposed low level circulation (llc). Scatterometry data indicates winds of up to 30 knots in the eastern semicircle of the llc.
Environmental analysis reveals favorable conditions for development defined by, robust poleward outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that invest 98S will have little development as it remains quasi-stationary over the next 24-36 hours and then having a slight northward track thereafter.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.