By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 98S…which is located approximately 141 NM east-southeast of Cocos Island, Australia
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts formative bands wrapping into a consolidated low level circulation center (llcc).
Environmental analysis reveals marginal conditions for development defined by, robust poleward outflow, warm sea surface temperatures, offset by increased (15-25 knot) vertical wind shear.
Global models are in agreement that invest 98S will have little development as it remains quasi-stationary over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.