By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 97S…which is located approximately 186 NM north of Darwin, Australia
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts broad flaring convection surrounding a partially exposed low level circulation.
Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development with strong poleward and equatorward outflow aloft, low to moderate (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in strong agreement that 97S will intensify and consolidate over the next 24 to 48 hours, however they are split on the track. CMC, GFS and its ensembles have a more east-southeasterly track into the Gulf of Carpentaria, while NAVGEM and ECMWF have a more south-southeasterly track over Australia just south of the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is Low.