By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96S…which is located approximately 422 NM north of Geraldton, Australia
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts broad convection in the eastern periphery of a low level circulation.
Environmental analysis reveals favorable conditions for development defined by robust poleward outflow aloft, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that invest 96S will track southward along the western coast of Australia as it intensifies over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low.