By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90S…which is located approximately 633 NM northwest of Cocos Islands
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts flaring deep convection in the western semicircle of the area with moisture wrapping into a fully exposed and very broad low level circulation.
Environmental analysis shows the invest is in a marginally favorable area for development with decent equatorward outflow and very warm sea surface temperatures offset by high (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear.
Global model guidance predicts the invest will track south-southwest and gradually consolidate over the next 48-72 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.