By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 15S…which is located approximately 191 NM west-southwest of Wyndham, Australia
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows flaring convection wrapping into a broad low-level circulation. Deep flaring convection overhead of a low level circulation that is currently over land.
Environmental analysis reveals marginally favorable conditions for development with robust outflow aloft, moderate to high (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures, if 15S tracks over the Indian ocean.
Global models are in good agreement that 15S will track southwestward along the northwestern coast of Australia before emerging over water around 24 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.