By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91B…which is located approximately 227 NM southwest of Yangon, Myanmar
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows that Invest 01B continues to slowly consolidate low-level circulation with moderate convective banding. A microwave image depicts increasingly well-defined low level banding features and elongated fragmented convective bands extending from the northwest to south of the low level circulation.
The environment around 91B remains encouraging for further development with reasonable poleward outflow, low (05-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and nourishing sea surface temperature values.
Track guidance continues to show a northerly track over the next 48 hours, with landfall along the western portion of the Myanmar coast. The intensity guidance suggests relatively steady but slow intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours, with the system expected to reach tropical storm strength prior to landfall.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 32 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.