By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91B…which is located approximately 462 NM west-southwest of Phuket, Thailand
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows deep and disorganized convection with little to no sign of a discernible low level circulation.
Environmental analysis reveals marginally favorable conditions for development with robust outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by high (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear.
Global models are in good agreement that invest 91B will have slow development as it tracks northward over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.